Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 4.421868 5.236082 6.138315 7.209417 8.443360 9.817283 11.459741
2025-06-01 3.064981 4.119037 5.418992 7.126960 9.297115 11.946388 15.407159
2025-06-08 2.238725 3.359137 4.873821 7.040475 10.023405 13.943525 19.433922
2025-06-15 1.835410 3.024585 4.761060 7.425037 11.338187 16.790659 24.854508
2025-06-22 1.467198 2.637148 4.470484 7.465986 12.126081 18.959566 29.551375
2025-06-29 1.188858 2.316581 4.202252 7.464217 12.805647 20.998770 34.228093
2025-07-06 0.972825 2.046205 3.953485 7.431387 13.398675 22.930507 38.893327
2025-07-13 0.896827 2.010206 4.090164 8.049189 15.102112 26.737970 46.794390
2025-07-20 0.787118 1.882578 4.035378 8.312707 16.221574 29.689930 53.566506
2025-07-27 0.701706 1.784477 4.015762 8.628958 17.455326 32.926479 61.059536
2025-08-03 0.600130 1.627037 3.849639 8.635834 18.115953 35.222709 67.130094
2025-08-10 0.491504 1.426301 3.556778 8.343242 18.168663 36.433143 71.390593
2025-08-17 0.391321 1.222828 3.226334 7.935461 17.973234 37.221324 75.062509
2025-08-24 0.328514 1.099552 3.054738 7.842646 18.399948 39.213129 81.115086
2025-08-31 0.276161 0.990001 2.893976 7.747426 18.806680 41.198915 87.316658
2025-09-07 0.256056 0.969845 2.951652 8.165594 20.354859 45.550944 98.361555
2025-09-14 0.222503 0.897718 2.860047 8.210009 21.081587 48.307758 106.493026
2025-09-21 0.192198 0.826612 2.756670 8.208035 21.699647 50.887475 114.456224
2025-09-28 0.165316 0.758397 2.647193 8.172297 22.231922 53.325740 122.303256
2025-10-05 0.162336 0.777609 2.797530 8.844241 24.513863 59.668970 138.592756
2025-10-12 0.148675 0.751383 2.805488 9.130705 25.889050 64.145534 151.278697
2025-10-19 0.137679 0.732430 2.832669 9.474383 27.440022 69.122100 165.336873
2025-10-26 0.120564 0.681480 2.746413 9.481854 28.143190 72.253698 175.648763